As Trump fans the flames of a world on fire, can diplomacy take back control?

AI desk brief

The piece argues Trump’s Iran war has deepened global disorder, with spillovers across the Middle East and into the world economy. It says the conflict has pushed global inflation to 4%, lifted Brent to $117/bbl, and forced Saudi Arabia to raise its 2026 budget deficit forecast to $65.3bn, underscoring the inflationary and destabilising backdrop for markets.

The article also highlights widening regional fallout: Strait of Hormuz risks, revised Saudi growth expectations, and more entrenched hardline positions in Iran. The near-term market takeaway is a stronger geopolitical risk premium and firmer inflation impulse, both supportive for precious metals via safe-haven demand and potentially higher real-asset inflation hedging interest.