Does Gold Rise When Markets Panic? What 16 Fear Events Reveal - BullionVault

AI desk brief

BullionVault’s analysis of 16 fear events since 2018 finds gold is a delayed, not instantaneous, safe haven: sterling gold was higher one day after 10 of 16 shocks, but the average gain was only 0.5%, versus +3.1% after 120 days. The biggest immediate pop came after Russia’s invasion of Ukraine (+3.2% next day), but that move faded as the Fed started hiking; by contrast, some weak near-term reactions later turned into strong 120-day gains, including the Feb 2020 Covid crash (+11.4%) and Dec 2021 Omicron/Fed shock (+10.4%).

The piece also shows currency matters: sterling gold outperformed dollar/euro gold in the first days after shocks, but dollar gold led at 60 days and euro gold edged ahead by 120 days. BullionVault’s takeaway is that gold’s safe-haven role depends on the shock type, the holding period, and the currency used to measure returns.