The Bond Market Moves Gold More Than the Fed Does - GoldSilver

AI desk brief

The piece argues that bond-market pricing — especially real yields — matters more for gold than the Fed headline rate. It cites the 10-year Treasury’s -17.8% total return in 2022, the Fed’s 525 bp tightening cycle, and notes that high real yields remain gold’s main opportunity-cost headwind even as the metal has held up.

It also highlights structural supports: US deficits near 6% of GDP, rising Treasury supply, and strong central-bank gold buying. The World Gold Council figures cited are over 1,000 tonnes in 2024 and 863 tonnes in 2025, while China’s Treasury holdings have fallen to the lowest since 2008 and Japan remains the largest foreign holder.