Silver shortage could flip to surplus in 2027: Deutsche

AI desk brief

Deutsche Bank says silver’s tightness has eased materially and could turn into a supply glut by 2027 as inventories rise across London, CME and Shanghai while industrial demand weakens. The bank sees spot silver averaging $70/oz in Q2 2027, below the first half of 2026 peak, versus about $60.99/oz on Monday and after a roughly 14% decline since the start of 2026.

The call hinges on solar-related demand destruction: Deutsche expects global silver use in solar to fall more than 20% this year, with China down 33%, and sees silver consumption per solar cell dropping 17% in 2026 as manufacturers thrift with thinner contacts and copper-coated pastes. It also flags a potential 40Moz release from silver-backed funds by end-2027 if prior Fed hike-cycle patterns repeat, though China’s persistent premium remains an upside risk to the surplus view.