Oil prices ease and markets rally as Trump works towards deal with Iran

Gold jumped almost 2.5% to $4,667/oz as Trump’s comments on a possible Iran deal briefly eased geopolitical stress, even while the broader market rally pushed oil lower and equities higher. The move underscores that gold is still reacting primarily to Middle East risk and safe-haven demand, with the metal holding a strong bid despite the rebound in risk assets. Brent crude fell 3.3% to $106/bbl after earlier spiking as high as $126/bbl last week on blockade-related disruption in the Strait of Hormuz, while UK 30-year gilt yields eased 5 bps to 5.68% after touching their highest since 1998. Market commentary framed the tone shift as a “dam of tension” easing, but shipping disruption remained live after CMA CGM said one of its vessels was attacked in the strait and crew were injured. For precious metals desks, the key takeaway is that gold retains upside sensitivity to Middle East escalation even when equities are making records. Near term, headlines on Iran negotiations, shipping attacks, and any follow-through in bond yields/inflation expectations should keep volatility elevated; a failure of talks or renewed attacks would likely re-ignite safe-haven buying, while sustained de-escalation could cap gold’s geopolitical premium.