Oil price tops $100 a barrel after US-Iran talks fail and Trump orders strait of Hormuz blockade

Gold slipped 0.4% to $4,730.75/oz as the jump in oil on renewed US-Iran tensions and a blockade of the Strait of Hormuz pushed inflation expectations higher and trimmed bets on Fed easing. The move came even as risk assets sold off, suggesting the market is currently treating the inflation impulse from energy as more immediate than any safe-haven bid for bullion. Brent crude surged nearly 7% to $101.74/bbl and WTI rose more than 8% to $104.69/bbl after talks failed and the US imposed the blockade, while UK wholesale gas jumped 11.7%. JPMorgan said it still expects oil above $100/bbl in Q2 before easing later in the year. In rates, traders have shifted to an 84% chance of two BoE hikes this year, up from 60% on Friday, highlighting how quickly the oil shock is being repriced through the inflation channel. For gold, the key near-term risk is that higher energy prices keep real-rate and policy-cut expectations under pressure, limiting upside despite geopolitical stress. Unless the Hormuz situation worsens enough to trigger a broader flight to safety, the immediate trade appears to be gold capping out on firmer inflation/rates, with the next catalyst being whether the oil spike persists into broader CPI expectations and central bank pricing.