Gold, silver see price declines as U.S. CPI on deck

Gold and silver are lower into the U.S. CPI print, with June gold last down $38.50 at $4,779.10 and May silver off $0.823 at $75.59. The market is leaning on another hot inflation release: headline CPI for March is expected at +0.9% m/m and +3.3% y/y, while core CPI is forecast at +0.3% m/m and +2.7% y/y. Thursday’s core PCE also ran firm at +0.4% m/m in February, leaving the Fed’s preferred inflation gauge at +3.0% y/y and still well above target. The backdrop remains geopolitically supportive for safe havens, but the near-term PM tape is being driven more by macro positioning than by Middle East headlines. The ceasefire between the U.S. and Iran is described as fragile, with renewed tension around the Strait of Hormuz, continued Israel-Hezbollah clashes, and talks scheduled for Pakistan on Saturday. That mix keeps a risk bid under metals, but does not prevent pre-CPI profit-taking and de-risking in gold and silver. Near term, the key catalyst is the CPI surprise versus the already elevated expectations: a hot print would likely reinforce higher-for-longer Fed pricing and pressure bullion further, while an in-line or softer read could quickly revive the inflation hedge bid. Watch whether gold can hold the $4,750 area and whether silver stabilizes above $75 after the morning flush; if CPI lands above consensus, stops could accelerate below those levels.