FOMC minutes show a Fed worried about the impacts of Iran and viewing a rate hike as likely as a cut as risks become increasingly two-sided

The March 17-18 FOMC minutes leaned more hawkishly uncertain than dovish: policymakers said the balance of risks to growth and inflation had become “two-sided,” with the odds of a rate hike now seen as roughly equal to a cut. The staff also flagged a higher market-implied funds-rate path, rising two-year yields, and a stronger dollar as Middle East-driven energy shocks lifted near-term inflation expectations and pressured risk assets. For gold, the key takeaway is that the Fed is not yet comfortable pricing an early easing cycle if oil-driven inflation re-accelerates. The minutes say consumer price inflation remained elevated, 2026 inflation was revised slightly higher on energy, and downside risks to growth were paired with somewhat more upside risk to inflation. That combination typically supports safe-haven demand for bullion on geopolitical stress, but it can also cap upside if real rates and the dollar keep firming. Near term, gold traders will be watching whether Middle East tensions continue to lift crude and inflation compensation, and whether equity volatility persists. If the market continues to push out easing expectations, that is a headwind for non-yielding metals; if growth concerns deepen faster than inflation concerns, gold should regain support as a hedge. The minutes suggest the next decisive catalyst is still the inflation/energy pass-through rather than any immediate policy pivot.