‘The shift from dollar reserves to gold is not a prediction but a trend’ and BRICS+ demand could drive the whole gold market - EBC

BRICS+ central bank buying is emerging as a structural bullish driver for gold, with the bloc now holding 6,000+ tonnes, or 17.4% of global central bank gold reserves, versus 11.2% in 2019. According to EBC Financial Group’s Michael Harris, BRICS members added 663 tonnes in the first nine months of 2025 alone, worth about $91bn, while more than 40 central banks participated in the buying. He argues the flow is policy-driven and price-insensitive, with sovereign demand absorbing supply even at much higher prices. The report frames the 2022 freeze of roughly $300bn of Russian FX reserves as the key inflection point that accelerated reserve diversification away from the dollar and toward gold. Harris says the dollar’s share of global reserves has fallen to about 57% by end-2025, the lowest since 1994, while gold’s share of official reserve assets has risen above 23%. WGC survey data cited in the note show 73% of central bankers expect the dollar’s reserve share to keep falling and 43% plan to increase gold holdings, both record highs. Near term, this keeps the medium-term bias for gold constructive even if prices consolidate, because official-sector demand appears less sensitive to pullbacks than ETF or speculative flows. The main risk is that the article is more strategic than tactical and does not give a clear spot target or term structure signal; however, the implied message is that any dip in gold is likely to attract sovereign buying, especially if geopolitical stress in the Gulf or sanctions risk re-escalate.