Gold prices jump 2% as markets react to U.S.-Iran ceasefire deal

Gold jumped more than 2% in overnight trade after President Trump said the U.S. had agreed to a two-week ceasefire framework with Iran, with spot gold last at $4,809.20/oz after clearing the $4,800 resistance area. Silver also surged, trading above $76/oz, while S&P 500 futures rose more than 2% and WTI crude fell 18% as markets priced a sharp de-escalation in Middle East risk. The article argues the metal is still being driven by macro positioning rather than a classic safe-haven bid: last month gold fell more than 11%, its worst monthly loss since the early 1980s, as central-bank and investor liquidation met higher inflation expectations and rising opportunity costs. Analyst Michael Brown of Pepperstone said a sustained drop in energy prices could let central banks “look through” any temporary inflation spike, reducing near-term tightening risk; he also warned that if the ceasefire fails, the market could quickly revert to the recent playbook of higher crude, a stronger dollar, and pressure on metals. Near term, $4,800 is the first key level to hold for fresh bullish momentum, with $5,000 remaining the major upside line in the sand. The trade remains highly headline-sensitive: durable ceasefire confirmation would support risk assets and potentially ease inflation fears, while any renewed escalation would likely lift oil, reprice rates higher, and reintroduce volatility across gold and silver.