Oil prices plunge and stocks jump after Trump announces conditional ceasefire with Iran

Gold jumped more than 2% to $4,812/oz as markets priced a sharp de-escalation in the Iran shock after Trump said he would hold off on strikes, while Tehran signalled a two-week ceasefire and resumed talks. The move came alongside a 14%-plus collapse in Brent and WTI, lower Treasury yields, and a broad risk rally in equities, underscoring gold’s bid as a geopolitical hedge rather than an inflation trade. The key near-term question is whether the ceasefire holds and whether shipping through the Strait of Hormuz normalises over the next two weeks. Saxo’s Charu Chanana said the test is if negotiations keep progressing and if insurers and tanker operators regain confidence; that will decide whether this is just a relief rally or a durable de-escalation. If tensions flare again, gold could quickly retain its safe-haven premium even as oil retraces higher. For metals, the reaction is consistent with a flight-to-quality bid easing only if geopolitical risk genuinely fades. A sustained move lower in crude and Treasury yields would typically cap some of the macro support for gold, but any breakdown in talks or renewed disruption in Hormuz would likely reprice both energy and bullion higher. Near term, traders should watch headlines from the Iran-US talks in Islamabad on Friday and any confirmation on tanker traffic through the strait.