‘Food security timebomb’: a visual guide to the Gulf fertiliser blockade

The Hormuz shipping disruption is now a material fertiliser and food-inflation shock rather than just an energy story. The article says roughly a third of global raw fertiliser materials transit the strait, along with 20% of natural gas shipments used to make fertiliser; about 16m tonnes of fertilisers moved by sea from the Gulf in 2024, and Qatar Fertiliser Company — supplying around 14% of global urea from the world’s largest single export site — has been offline for almost a month after strikes on Qatar’s gas plants. Benchmark Egyptian urea prices have jumped more than 60% to $780/tonne from about $484 in late February, according to CRU, while ammonia, nitrogen and sulphur flows through Hormuz have slowed to a trickle. The article cites warnings from the IRC, WTO, UN WFP and FAO that a prolonged shutdown could trigger a broader food-security crisis and push up household staples and animal feed costs, with poorer countries most exposed. For precious metals, the direct read-through is macro-inflationary rather than supply-driven: higher food and input costs could keep pressure on inflation expectations and complicate central-bank easing, which is usually supportive for gold on the margin. Near-term catalyst remains any reopening or escalation around Hormuz; if the blockade persists, fertiliser prices may extend higher from current levels, amplifying the inflation impulse.