Gold holds weekly gains, but rising oil and rate fears cap upside

Gold is on track for a 3% weekly gain and remains above $4,600/oz, but upside has stalled at resistance near $4,800/oz as the market balances safe-haven demand against rising oil, inflation and rate fears tied to the Middle East conflict. Traders are watching $4,600 as near-term support; a confirmed daily close below that level could open a slide toward $4,450, while a sustained break back through $4,800 would re-ignite momentum toward the psychological $5,000/oz area. Analysts cited in the piece say the market is increasingly pricing a longer U.S.-Israel-Iran conflict, with oil back above $100/bbl and the U.S. dollar still firm on supply-chain disruption concerns. Alex Kuptsikevich of FxPro argued the current inflation shock may ultimately force easing rather than tightening, but in the near term central banks remain focused on inflation, creating headwinds for bullion. He flagged $4,200/oz as a medium-term downside target that would not necessarily break the broader uptrend, but a move below it would challenge the three-year rally. Nick Cawley of Solomon Global said gold is in recovery mode after briefly dipping below $4,100/oz in last month’s selloff, with the Iran war still the key driver. Lukman Otunuga of FXTM highlighted the same $4,600/oz support level and said gold could regain its safe-haven premium if the Strait of Hormuz risk escalates further, especially if growth fears begin to outweigh higher carry costs. Silver is also being pulled higher by the same macro risk backdrop, though the article gives no fresh silver-specific levels.