After the US midterms, what will a lame duck Trump mean for the global economy?

AI desk brief

Brent crude remains above $100 a barrel versus about $70 before the Iran war, while US inflation has reached 3.7%; the IMF expects global headline inflation of 4.7% this year. The article reports that the Fed has raised rates and investors anticipate at least one further increase, with tightening also expected from the Bank of England and ECB. Further escalation could support gold through geopolitical demand, but tighter policy could counter that support if expected real yields rise. Analysts identify Middle East de-escalation as a key determinant of the outlook following Republicans’ loss of Congress.