NY gold returns to $4,000! Precious metals futures and stocks soar together, sector surges over 10%, multiple stocks hit limit up [SMM Flash] - Shanghai Metals Market

AI desk brief

Article summary

SMM's November 4 report puts COMEX gold up 2% at $4,019.1/oz and silver up 3.39%, attributing gains to lower Treasury yields and a weaker dollar amid US election expectations. Chinese precious-metals equities rose 10.1%, but SMM's morning silver reference fell 1.58% to 11,794 yuan/kg, with mediocre trading and needs-based purchasing despite some traders reporting limited inventory. Citing the World Gold Council, it reports Q3 central-bank gold purchases of 321 tonnes and year-to-date purchases of 675 tonnes; CITIC cites September gold ETF net inflows of 67 tonnes. In the closing assessment, J.P. Morgan Private Bank's Yuxuan Tang warns of thin liquidity and little technical support below $4,000, forecasting Fed hikes in December and Q1 2027 and a 10-year Treasury yield peak of 5.25–5.5% by mid-year, before a possible gold rebound later next year after tightening ends.

Market implications · analysis

If the reported dollar weakness and lower real yields persist, they could support gold near term; Tang's higher-yield scenario is a counterforce, not an established outcome. Official purchases and ETF inflows indicate demand support, but do not establish immediate price direction. Soft Chinese spot-silver trading limits confirmation of the futures rally. Confidence is moderate given differing rates assessments and unclear publication year.