Omar Ayales: 2 Gold Price Scenarios, Plus What I'm Buying Now

Transcript-based desk brief

Omar Ayales says gold is at a pivotal juncture after a sharp pullback from earlier-2026 highs around 5,600, with the market now retesting the July low near 4,000. He sees two main scenarios: a break below 4,000 could trigger an additional ~20% decline toward 3,300, while a successful hold could support a rebound, with 4,700 the key upside resistance to watch.

His bearish case leans on a firmer U.S. dollar, which he says has been quietly breaking higher and could pressure gold if Europe and other basket currencies stay weak. On the bullish side, he points to an inflation backdrop resembling the 1980s—energy/supply shocks and elevated debt dynamics—as a reason gold could eventually resume higher, even though he warns the market may need a multi-year consolidation before the next major cycle low he places around 2029.