Gold Price Forecast: Why Are Gold Prices Still Falling After the Fed Pauses Rate Hikes? September PCE May Determine Gold's Direction - TradingKey

AI desk brief

Gold extended its post-Fed pullback, trading near $4,025 in Asia after the Fed left rates unchanged at 3.75%–4.00% and kept a December hike in play. Market focus is now on today’s September PCE release, with headline PCE seen up 3.6% y/y and core at 3.1% y/y; a hotter print could lift the dollar and Treasury yields and pressure gold toward $3,980/$3,940, while a softer reading could reopen $4,080 and then $4,100–$4,140.

TradingKey says December hike odds eased only modestly after the decision, from 84% to about 78%, while the Fed’s assessment of resilient growth and still-elevated inflation has limited any gold bounce. Technically, RSI at 38.7 and price action below the 10- and 20-day averages keep the short-term bias bearish until gold reclaims $4,080.