Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Stalls Below $4,015 Ahead of Fed Decision - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Spot gold is trading around $4,003 and remains capped by repeated failures at $4,015.61, with support at $3,976.37 as markets look to the Fed’s two-day meeting and Wednesday’s decision. The article frames the near-term bias as bearish while price stays below that Fibonacci ceiling, with downside targets at $3,952 and $3,931 if $3,976 breaks.

Rate expectations are the key macro driver: markets see only about a 10% chance of a hike this week, but around a 75% probability of a December hike, while a firmer dollar is adding pressure to gold. Lower oil on Gulf diplomacy has eased inflation fears and briefly helped gold back above $4,000, but the piece argues that relief is fragile and could reverse if energy tensions re-escalate.