Gold Price Forecast: XAU/USD Slips Below $4,076 as Saudi Oil Strike Lifts Fed Hike Bets - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Spot gold is trading near $4,072/oz, down about 1.6% and just below the key $4,076 support that has anchored October trade; a 4-hour close below that level would open downside to $4,031 and then $3,987. The driver is a Saudi Aramco Shaybah oil-field drone strike that pushed Brent toward $111 and revived inflation fears, keeping December Fed hike odds near 89% despite a weaker dollar and softer Treasury yields.

The article also notes mixed official-sector demand: the World Gold Council reported 39t of net central-bank buying in August, China added 23t in September, while Russia has cut holdings by about 50t this year through July. Near term, weak US data could trim hike odds and support gold, but further Gulf energy disruptions would likely keep oil and inflation pressure elevated and weigh on bullion.