Gold Holds Its Ground as Real Yields Surge

AI desk brief

Gold held up despite a sharp September selloff in real rates, with the 10-year TIPS yield rising 49 bps to near 3% while spot gold fell 6.31% to $4,157.41/oz. The piece argues the short-term headwind is higher real yields and a stronger dollar, but structural support remains from fiscal risk, reserve diversification and persistent physical demand; ETF/futures flows recovered toward January highs and central bank buying stayed historically strong.

The macro backdrop is increasingly framed as fiscal dominance: roughly $10.5 trillion of U.S. federal debt must be refinanced within 12 months, and higher long-end yields raise interest expense, widen deficits and force more issuance. For silver, September was pressured by real yields and USD strength, but elevated Shanghai premiums and stronger Chinese factory activity point to resilient industrial demand.