Gold ETFs: US$31 billion inflow despite price decline - Shanghai Metals Market

AI desk brief

WGC data show physically backed gold ETFs took in a record US$31bn in Q3 2026, including US$10bn in September, even as gold fell 8.5% on the month to US$4,176/oz. Holdings hit a record 4,256 tonnes, but the price drop was driven by futures liquidation rather than ETF selling: Comex managed money net positions fell by 84 tonnes and spread positions by 156 tonnes, overwhelming ETF buying.

Macro headwinds reinforced the move, with the 10-year U.S. Treasury yield up 53bp to 5.3% and the DXY rising 2% in September. Physical demand remained firm, with India trading at a premium and Chinese premiums intact, while central banks bought 39 tonnes in August, led by China, Poland and Uzbekistan. The WGC/BMO view is that October’s Fed meeting will be a key test of whether elevated yields reflect policy expectations or deeper fiscal/term-premium concerns, particularly in the UK and Europe.