Good news in US inflation report boosts chances Fed won’t hike rates

AI desk brief

A softer-than-expected US PCE print has weakened near-term Fed tightening expectations, a mildly constructive setup for gold and silver. August PCE rose 3.4% y/y versus 3.7% expected, while traders now price roughly a 35% chance of an October rate hike, down from about 45% before the data.

The macro backdrop remains mixed: the 10-year Treasury yield was still pinned near 5.246%, its highest since June 2007 a day earlier, and crude stayed firm on US-Iran tensions. Friday’s jobs report is the next catalyst for rates and precious-metals direction.