Gold Price Analysis: Fed Rate Hike Fears Weigh on Gold – Central Banks Continue to Buy - Shanghai Metals Market

AI desk brief

Gold sold off in September as rising U.S. bond yields and renewed Fed hike fears lifted real rates, with 30-year Treasury yields briefly reaching 5.62%, the highest since June 2002. The article says gold fell to about $4,169/oz on Sept. 30, down 5.9% on the month but still up about 8.1% year on year, and notes U.S. inflation at 3.40% versus a 4.00% Fed funds rate leaves real yields firmly positive—an unfavorable setup for non-yielding bullion.

New York Fed President John Williams’ comments that another hike later this year may be appropriate kept October FOMC expectations in focus, while softer U.S. data briefly eased the pressure and helped gold spike to an intraday/session high of $4,171/oz. On the physical/official sector side, China’s gold reserves rose to 2,346.43t by June 2026, while Russia trimmed holdings to 2,282.98t; Germany and the U.S. were unchanged at 3,350.25t and 8,133.46t respectively. The piece also cites model-based forecasts of $4,289.51/oz for quarter-end and $4,705.79/oz over 12 months, contingent on the rate path.