TD sees rhodium surplus ending four-year squeeze

AI desk brief

TD Commodity Strategy expects rhodium to transition from a four-year squeeze into a 20,000-oz surplus next year as mine and recycled supply rise and autocatalyst demand stays flat-to-lower. It projects prices falling from about $9,000/oz to $7,600 in 2027 and $6,500 in 2028, versus a roughly 50,000-oz deficit this year.

The bank warns, however, that inventories are still exceptionally thin at just over three months of demand, so any outage at a major South African mine or refinery could trigger sharp supply-driven spikes. Rhodium remains highly concentrated in South Africa, with slower processing than platinum or palladium and limited substitution flexibility, while ETFs are seeing positive inflows for the first time in more than a decade.