Canada could gain billions from refining more metals

AI desk brief

Canada’s export agency says the country is leaving value on the table by shipping raw critical minerals abroad instead of building more domestic refining and downstream processing, estimating a potential C$98 billion annual GDP uplift by 2035 from a more sophisticated export mix. The report highlights rare earths, graphite, lithium, copper and uranium as areas where Canada could capture more margin through processing, technology and manufacturing at home.

For metals, the key takeaway is the policy push toward higher domestic value-add rather than simple mine output growth, with Ottawa already backing mining investment and Generation Mining’s Marathon copper-palladium project with C$140 million. EDC also flagged structural bottlenecks — long-term capital, skilled labour, commercialization capacity and transport infrastructure — that could slow new processing buildout.