UK economy defies forecasts with surprise 0.4% growth in July

AI desk brief

UK GDP rose 0.4% in July, beating zero-growth forecasts after a 0.3% increase in June, while economists warned the Iran-war-driven oil spike above $100/bbl could lift inflation and keep borrowing costs elevated ahead of the 28 October budget. The article frames a more inflationary, bond-negative backdrop that is broadly supportive for precious metals if it feeds through to lower real yields and tighter fiscal conditions.

For metals traders, the key transmission is higher inflation risk and stress in sovereign bond markets rather than the GDP print itself. UK budget uncertainty and rising rates may keep macro volatility elevated, but the article does not give direct gold/silver price data or flows.