Trouble in US bond market could mean higher prices are here to stay

AI desk brief

US Treasury sell-off is pushing yields higher, with the 10-year note rising from 3.95% at end-February to 4.8% on Wednesday, its highest since 2023. The article frames the move as driven by higher inflation expectations, war-related shocks, and record US debt, all of which support a higher-for-longer rate backdrop that is typically negative for gold through real yields and borrowing costs.

Mortgage rates have already climbed back to 6.66% at end-August after briefly dipping below 6%, and the Fed is expected to raise rates at least once more before year-end. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent’s move to triple buybacks to $6bn briefly steadied markets but did not reverse the yield move, leaving the near-term macro setup supportive of elevated precious-metals volatility and, if risk aversion deepens, potential safe-haven bid.