Copper price pauses below record as China’s imports slump, mine supply heads for first drop since 2017

AI desk brief

Copper paused just below record highs after a four-session surge, with Comex December copper at $6.8545/lb and LME three-month at $14,645.50/t as traders balanced Middle East-driven inflation fears, a Brent move back above $100/bbl, and Friday’s US CPI. The move was underpinned by strong US inflows and weak China imports: China brought in 382,000 tonnes of unwrought copper and products in August, the weakest August in six years and down 6.7% year to date, while US refined copper imports hit a record 225,094 tonnes in July and Comex inventories reached a record 695,624 tonnes.

The supply backdrop is tightening, with the ICSG reporting world mine production down 1.1% in H1 2026 and Morgan Stanley now seeing full-year mine supply flat to slightly lower, which would make 2026 the first annual decline since 2017. Brokers said high prices are already pulling marginal supply back via restarts in Chile, but the market remains highly sensitive to tariff headlines, dollar moves and any post-CPI profit-taking after the latest breakout.