Gold Price Forecast: Holds $4,366 as XAU/USD Triangle Tightens Before CPI - FXLeaders

AI desk brief

Gold is consolidating in a tight $4,366-$4,450 triangle, with repeated support at $4,365.91 and resistance clustered at $4,432.80-$4,449.54; a break higher opens $4,511.80 then $4,581.24, while a loss of $4,365.91 targets $4,296.30 and then $4,231.65. The setup is being driven by offsetting forces: a weaker dollar and geopolitical risk are supportive, but elevated Treasury yields, a strong labor market and Brent near $100 are keeping the market cautious ahead of Thursday PPI and Friday CPI.

The article says the Fed decision is close to a coin toss, with markets roughly 50/50 on another 25 bp hike in September. It also cites WGC data showing central banks bought 23 tonnes in July and around 130 tonnes YTD, with China buying for a 21st straight month, Poland the biggest buyer in 2026, and the Bank of Korea back in the market for the first time in over a decade.