Can NEM Maintain Earnings Momentum Amid Production Challenges? - The Globe and Mail

AI desk brief

Newmont is flagging softer gold output and materially higher costs in 2026, a mixed read for miners but modestly supportive for the gold supply backdrop. The company said attributable Q2 gold production fell 13% YoY and 1% sequentially to 1.29 million ounces, and it now expects full-year 2026 production of about 5.26 million ounces versus 5.89 million in 2025. Newmont also lifted expected 2026 all-in sustaining costs to $1,680/oz on a by-product basis from $1,358/oz, citing lower sales volumes, higher royalties and taxes, deferred sustaining capital, and inventory changes.

The production shortfall is being driven by lower grades, Cadia and site transitions at Penasquito and Cadia, plus weaker-than-expected contributions from Nevada Gold Mines and Pueblo Viejo, partially offset by Ahafo North. The article frames this as a profitability headwind for Newmont even as the stock has outperformed over the past year, up 68.7%, and trades at 13.31x forward earnings, roughly in line with the sector.

Peers are showing a more mixed operational picture: Barrick’s attributable gold production rose 11% sequentially to 796,000 ounces in Q2 and it kept 2026 guidance at 2.9-3.25 million ounces, while Agnico Eagle’s Q2 output was 855,816 ounces and it sees full-year production near the low end of guidance after Barnat-related disruptions. Near term, the key catalyst is whether lower Newmont supply is temporary sequencing or a broader sign of tightening industry output and firmer unit costs into 2H 2026.