Can NEM Maintain Earnings Momentum Amid Production Challenges? - TradingView

AI desk brief

Newmont said Q2 attributable gold production fell 13% y/y and 1% q/q to 1.29Moz, with lower output at Cadia and weaker grades across several assets. The company now expects 2026 gold production of about 5.26Moz, down from 5.89Moz in 2025, while all-in sustaining costs are projected to jump to $1,680/oz from $1,358/oz on a by-product basis as sales volumes fall and royalties, taxes, and deferred sustaining capex weigh on costs.

The production reset is driven by planned divestments, mine sequencing, and weaker contributions from Penasquito, Cadia, Nevada Gold Mines, and Pueblo Viejo, only partly offset by Ahafo North. Management flagged Q3 output broadly in line with Q2, implying no near-term recovery in volumes. The article also notes peer trends: Barrick beat Q2 guidance at 796koz attributable production and expects sequential gains into Q3/Q4, while Agnico Eagle was near flat y/y at 856koz and sees 2026 output near the low end of guidance after Barnat pit issues.

For the gold market, the key takeaway is not demand-led price impact but a tightening supply narrative from a major producer, alongside rising industry costs. NEM’s higher AISC and lower production could pressure earnings, but if this pattern broadens across majors it would reinforce a more constructive long-term supply backdrop for gold. Near term, traders should watch whether the weaker production/cost trend prompts further guidance cuts or drives more mine sequencing and asset sales across the sector.