Gold vs silver prices: Why the two metals are telling different stories - CNBC TV18

AI desk brief

Gold and silver are diverging on valuation even as both metals stay supported by a softer US dollar and expectations of easier US policy. On MCX, October gold was up 0.14% at ₹1.53 lakh per 10 grams, while December silver slipped 0.08% to ₹2.38 lakh per kg. Internationally, gold was around $4,434/oz and silver near $66.95/oz, leaving gold still elevated versus its modelled fair value while silver screens comparatively cheaper.

Monarch PMS said gold’s fair-value range is $3,248-$4,595/oz with a midpoint of $3,922/oz, implying the metal remains above fair value even after easing from a January peak of $5,589/oz. By contrast, its silver framework puts fair value around $54-$77/oz with a midpoint near $65/oz; at roughly $61.7/oz, silver was estimated to be about 6% below midpoint. The gold-silver ratio has also rebounded to around 69:1, close to its long-run average, after compressing to about 46 in January when silver looked expensive relative to gold.

Near term, the key catalyst is US inflation data, especially PPI and CPI, which will steer Fed-rate expectations and likely determine whether the current range breaks. Analysts cited gold support around $4,300-$4,500/oz and silver levels at $65 and $67/oz, while on MCX silver has support around ₹2.36 lakh/kg and resistance near ₹2.42 lakh/kg. A weaker rupee remains an added tailwind for domestic prices, particularly if global bullion prices hold firm into the data releases.