Gold declines to near $4,400 as robust US jobs data lifts Fed hike odds - tmgm.com

AI desk brief

Gold fell to around $4,410/oz in early Asian trade after a stronger-than-expected US August nonfarm payrolls print pushed markets to price a 60% probability of a Fed rate hike next week, up from 50% before the release. The move extended a Friday selloff as higher bond yields and a firmer dollar weighed on non-yielding bullion, even though the broader 2026 uptrend remains intact.

August payrolls rose by 162k versus 56k expected, while unemployment held at 4.1%. Ole Hansen of Saxo Bank said gold and silver have tracked lower alongside yields after the jobs report reinforced expectations for a September 16 hike. SocGen argued gold has entered a new phase of the bull run, driven less by speculative momentum and more by broad-based structural conviction across physical, futures, and options markets.

Near term, the market is focused on US PPI and CPI later this week. Hot inflation would reinforce the case for a hike, likely supporting the dollar and pressuring XAU/USD further; softer prints would ease rate-hike odds and could trigger a rebound. Technically, gold remains range-bound: resistance sits near the 20-day SMA around $4,465, then $4,675, while support is seen near $4,350 and then $4,260. A break below the lower band would open a deeper corrective phase.