Gold Price Forecast: Can Gold Keep Rising as Stronger-Than-Expected Nonfarm Payrolls Boost Fed Rate Hike Expectations? - tradingkey.com

AI desk brief

Gold sold off toward $4,390 in Asian trade after a much stronger-than-expected U.S. August nonfarm payrolls print reduced recession fears and pushed Treasury yields and the dollar higher. The report showed 162,000 jobs added versus ~56,000 expected, while the unemployment rate held at 4.1%; the 10-year yield rose to around 4.77%, increasing the opportunity cost of holding non-yielding gold.

The article argues the payroll surprise materially reset Fed expectations, with the market now pricing a greater chance of another hike in September. It also highlights upward revisions to prior months: June was revised from +20,000 to +31,000 and July from -23,000 to +21,000, suggesting the labor market is not deteriorating as quickly as previously thought. That combination has kept pressure on XAUUSD despite a rebound earlier in the week.

Technically, $4,300 is presented as the key support for bulls, with a break seen opening $4,200; resistance is cited at $4,500–$4,510. Near term, gold should remain highly sensitive to follow-through in Treasury yields, the dollar, and any Fed repricing after the payrolls shock.