Gold's Best Month in a Century Meets Its Toughest Week: The Jackson Hole Shock That's Now Shaking Bullion Markets on September 1, 2026 - India Infoline

AI desk brief

Gold and silver have opened September under heavy pressure after a sharp Jackson Hole repricing pushed Fed hike odds higher. COMEX December gold is around $4,524/oz versus spot near $4,430–4,448, both near two-week lows, while spot silver is around $66.50/oz. In India, MCX gold October is near ₹1,54,000/10g and MCX silver near ₹2,45,500/kg, with retail 24k gold around ₹1,54,450/10g and 22k at ₹1,41,476/10g.

The immediate catalyst was Fed Chair Kevin Warsh’s hawkish Jackson Hole message that inflation is still sticky and policy remains insufficiently restrictive. Traders responded by lifting September hike probability to 60.4% on CME FedWatch, versus roughly 36% before the speech; gold fell 2.75% on Aug. 29, its biggest one-day drop since June 10, and silver lost more than 4%. Deutsche Bank and BofA both shifted forecasts to include a September 25bp hike.

The August rally had been fueled less by classic safe-haven demand than by the Treasury’s enlarged bond buyback program, which revived the “debasement trade” and fears of long-end yield suppression amid $37tn of US debt and $1tn+ annual interest costs. Near term, the market is now trading the tension between Treasury support and Fed hawkishness; if September hike odds keep climbing, bullion could remain vulnerable, while any retracement in rate expectations or renewed concern over debt monetization would quickly re-support gold and silver.