Gold (XAUUSD) Price Forecast: Larak Strike Lifts Oil as Gold Extends Friday’s Selloff - FXEmpire

AI desk brief

Spot gold is under pressure at the start of the week, trading around $4,443/oz after a volatile Sunday-night open that swung from $4,445.72 to $4,466.95 before slipping back below $4,440. The market remains below its 200-day moving average at $4,528.17 and in bear-market territory versus the all-time high at $5,602.23, with the immediate technical battleground sitting in the $4,458.52-$4,504.08 retracement zone.

The selloff is being driven by higher U.S. yields and a firmer dollar after Warsh’s Jackson Hole remarks revived 2% inflation-targeting and rate-hike repricing for September. The article argues the 10-year yield near 4.72% and long-end rates above 5.2% are the main headwinds, while the dollar has not given back its post-speech gains. A separate crude spike after reported U.S. strikes on Larak Island in the Strait of Hormuz is adding inflation anxiety, but in the near term it is being interpreted as bearish for gold because oil and rates are moving against longs simultaneously.

On the chart, a break through $4,697.11 would reassert the uptrend, while a move below the swing low at $4,311.04 would flip the main trend down and open the door to $4,319.60-$4,230.51 and then the 50-day moving average at $4,212.05. Dip-buying interest is still present on geopolitical risk and Gulf shipping concerns, but the immediate catalyst remains U.S. rate expectations and whether yields/dollar continue to extend Monday’s post-Jackson Hole move.