Gold ticks up; Warsh's Jackson Hole speech in focus - CNBC

AI desk brief

Gold edged 0.4% higher to $4,609.97/oz on Thursday, stabilizing after Wednesday’s 1.4% drop, as traders positioned for Kevin Warsh’s debut Jackson Hole speech on Friday. December U.S. gold futures added 0.2% to $4,664.40. The market has recently been supported by renewed dollar-debasement concerns tied to the U.S. Treasury’s buyback plan for older long-dated bonds, which has helped lift gold to its highest level since mid-May earlier this week.

StoneX’s Bob Haberkorn said the rally is being driven by strong ETF demand and continued central-bank buying, with investors using gold as an alternative asset to the dollar. That near-term bid is being tested by firmer inflation data: July PCE rose 3.7% y/y, versus 3.6% expected, keeping policy expectations in play even as the probability of a September hike has fallen to 34% on CME FedWatch. Markets are now focused on whether Warsh signals a more hawkish inflation roadmap or a tolerance for easier financial conditions.

For gold, the immediate risk is a Jackson Hole surprise that re-prices front-end yields higher and triggers profit-taking after the recent rally. Conversely, any speech that reinforces doubts about the bond market or flags a slower disinflation path could keep the dollar-debasement narrative alive and extend support above the mid-$4,500s. Near term, $4,600/oz is the key pivot; a hold there keeps the trend constructive, while a failure could invite a deeper pullback after the week’s sharp run-up.