Op-Ed: ASM risk is becoming harder to manage

AI desk brief

ASM/illegal artisanal mining is being framed as a growing operational and supply-chain risk for gold miners, with Gold Fields, AngloGold Ashanti and Southern Copper all citing disruption, liability and permit issues across Ghana, Peru and South Africa. The piece argues the market has moved beyond isolated incidents: ASM now shows up in revenue leakage, concession interference, environmental damage, mercury emissions and due-diligence concerns.

The article highlights the scale of the problem with SWISSAID estimates that at least 435t of gold worth about $31bn left Africa undeclared in 2022. It also cites a Reuters-reported 229t five-year gap in Ghana between declared exports and partner-import data, valued at roughly $11.4bn. EITI says ASM provides livelihoods for more than 40 million people globally, underscoring why governments struggle to tighten enforcement without broader social fallout.

For gold traders, the key implication is less immediate price impact than medium-term supply uncertainty and higher operating risk for producers exposed to ASM regions. Any escalation in enforcement, licensing reform, or formalisation could alter local supply flows, but in the near term the bigger market signal is that undeclared production remains materially undercounted in parts of Africa and Latin America. That supports a constructive structural backdrop for gold as supply transparency remains weak and miners face rising security, compliance and ESG costs.