Chris Vermeulen: Why This Gold Breakout Could Fail

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Chris Vermeulen argues the latest gold strength is still a countertrend move and could fail if broader risk assets keep advancing. His base case is that the S&P 500 and Nasdaq remain in a strong bullish structure, with rotation out of Big Tech into other areas potentially setting up another leg higher and even a late-cycle blow-off phase. On metals, he is cautious on gold, silver, miners, and long-term bonds, saying the recent rallies are not yet enough to confirm a durable trend reversal. The key technical message is that the metals complex remains vulnerable until charts break and hold in a way that validates a broader regime shift rather than a short-covering bounce. For the desk, this is a bearish-to-neutral read for XAU/XAG near term: if equities continue to absorb risk capital and the rally in metals remains technically corrective, upside in bullion and miners may fade. Near-term confirmation levels are not provided in the description, so traders would need to watch whether gold and silver can extend beyond recent highs without immediately reversing; failure to do so would reinforce the “trap rally” narrative.