Haywood cuts gold forecasts but says miners remain attractive

AI desk brief

Haywood has cut its near-term precious-metals deck after a weak Q2, trimming its 2026 gold forecast to an average $4,345/oz from $4,906 and its 2027 gold outlook to $4,000/oz from $5,000. It also lowered 2026 silver to $67.11/oz from $73.40 and reduced longer-term platinum and palladium assumptions, but still says the pullback is creating an attractive entry point into gold miners ahead of earnings season.

The brokerage remains constructive on the sector, arguing the recent selloff is a consolidation within an ongoing bull market driven by central bank accumulation, de-dollarization and elevated global debt. It highlighted that gold lost 14% in Q2 as higher bond yields, a stronger dollar and profit-taking hit the metal after a sharp rally, while the VanEck Gold Miners ETF (GDX) fell 18% over the same period. Haywood also pointed to valuation support, with senior producers trading at 7.83x next-12-month cash flow versus a five-year average of 8.86x, and said strong cash generation continues to support M&A as miners replace reserves.

Key stock calls remain positive despite the lower commodity deck: Equinox Gold is the top producer pick, helped by the pending Orla Mining merger that would create a ~1.1Moz/year North America-focused producer with upside toward 2Moz by 2031. Among developers, Haywood favors First Mining Gold, Thesis Gold & Silver and Troilus Mining. First Mining got the biggest target upgrade, to $1.75 from $1.25, after federal environmental approval for Springpole, while Troilus is targeting a Q4 updated feasibility study and expects final permits in Q1 2027.