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AI desk brief

Dollar strength and rising Fed hike expectations are dragging gold sharply lower, with spot gold down more than 3% on the day to $3,973/oz, slipping back below $4,000 for the first time since November 2025. The move comes alongside a 13-month high in the US dollar index and a one-year high versus the euro, while sterling has fallen to $1.3145, its weakest since late November 2025. The article frames the gold selloff as a direct response to higher-for-longer US rate expectations: market pricing has shifted after last week’s FOMC meeting, with around half of policymakers now seen favoring at least one further hike before end-2026. That combination of stronger dollar, firmer US data and a more hawkish Fed is the main headwind for non-yielding assets, while softer oil prices are easing inflation and rate pressure elsewhere. Near term, the key risk is that continued USD resilience keeps pressure on bullion and reinforces speculative liquidation after January’s record $5,400/oz peak. Unless the Fed reprices dovishly again or geopolitical risk re-accelerates safe-haven demand, gold looks vulnerable to further downside probes below $4,000/oz; the move also likely weighs on silver and the broader precious-metals complex via the macro channel.